Just curious on probabilities of Class chances?

as the title states just wondering the chances of finding an Ark with S class A class etc…

Been farming for frostjacks and ive found plenty… execpt they are all E… as;lkdfja;lsdjf;la

To be honest, I’m not sure

I imagine there’s numbers in there somewhere but the betas never really asked that question…

We could probably come up with a pretty close estimate. Give me a moment… 

If it helps, I did a trial run of 100 battles at the Biteschool spot and came up with these probabilities:

  • S = 0.6%
  • A = 4.4%
  • B = 6.8%
  • C = 18.6%
  • D = 31.8%
  • E = 37.8%

When I did a similar test, I found these numbers:

S = 1.1%

A = 3.3%

B = 5.5%

C = 16.9% 

D = 30.0%

E = 42.8% 

They’re pretty close to the results Dave found above, though a little off. 

I’d wager S is around 1%… 

Its different with rare arkadions tough…

And you know this how?

Don’t think so…got a s class galey lol
Must have been super lucky though^^

I only get E till C ranks with rares

Not necessarily.

To get a rare S grade Ark you actually need two events to happen at the same time

So you’re actually “rolling a dice” to get the rare arc to spawn and then “rolling it” again to see what grade the spawned arc will be.

So I believe you’d have to multiply the two probabilities to find the probability of getting the rare one to spawn and at the same time for it to be the desired grade.

But numbers would just ma it discouraging to farm :stuck_out_tongue:

And that being said that’s why it seems to be only C grade for you because seing anything above C grade has a very low probability

That could be the case haha, that means I have bad luck

I love posts like these =D

Essentially if youhave a 1/200 chance of finding a rare and a 1% chance it will be S class your odds should be about .005%. Thats just doing straight math, but realistically your chances are much… MUCH lower, sadly.

edit: and while numbers are scary to look at, remember that Luck players A huge part in probability in drop chances in game. I find it easier to take the number when i tell myself it’s all luck, because essentially it really is. Getting the ARK is the hard part… grade boosting is easier than farming(although limited) but the devs are showing their willingness to throw them out for events, we’ll see how many more we get.

SECOND EDIT: major math issue… too early…

I just looked through my hatchlings. This is what I’ve gotten. 

6 E

2 D

1 C

3 B

1 A

I imagine if you took the time to perform a chi-square goodness-of-fit test, you’d find that these observations are within the realm of the expected observations (assuming rares obey the same percentages). Probably. 

i have found 15 hatchlings, caught 14 and one broke free, out of those i have found these

S: 0

A: 0

B: 0

C:4

D: 1 (and the one i missed was a D so 2)

E: 9…

the bite schools are a better measurement here. I doubt the developers coded differing class probabilities in per Ark, its likely static, so if you did a 1000 pool plot you would probably have pretty accurate numbers. 

Out of a total of 243 arks (biteschools), I got these numbers:

S: 3 (1,2%)
A: 17 (7,0%)
B: 21 (8,6%)
C: 44 (18,1%)
D: 73 (30,0%)
E. 85 (35,0%)

We could also add up all results of everyones runs together to make a larger sample group.

Anyways we can assume that S grade probability converge to 1% :slight_smile:

That means… Back to farming it is :stuck_out_tongue:

If you’re interested, my data was based on 506 biteschools. 

I’d agree with 1% chance to find an S, but keep mind that 1% gets tested against the spawn % of the given ARK you are hunting.

1% of a fraction of a percent is pretty low.

Yes for sure but we were talking about the probability for an arc to be S grade once it spawned 

But of course the probability of the arc you want in particular being S is much lower.

Nonetheless I don’t want to calculate it for the rare ones or I might stop farming :p