Out of curiosity did the game developers verify that rate?
I’m only asking because of 2 things ive noticed :
1) I found my first frost kit in a half hour BUT I;ve found no Brakie after 8+ hours of farming its spot I found my first Nilo in aproxiamately the amount of time and then went more than 2 hours not seeing another - I was training on that spot for exp. I also found a frostjack, musharoo and Levi all relatively quickly.
2) According to this : http://wow.joystiq.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/ with a 1 in 200 rate in 400 attempts you should have an 80% chance of seeing one. In over two thousand attempts I’ve only seen one. The basic principle is that even though 1 in 200 is a rare occurrence and everytime you go you still keep a 1 in 200 chance so doing it 200 times would only be a 60% chance.
According to this calculator 8-10 hour grinds for no ark should be statistical anomalies and yet the story seems common. Is it possible that the rare rates are affected by last spawn?
Has any one else found that they find their first rare easier than the others?