# Are we actually sure the spawn rate for rares is 1/200?

Out of curiosity did the game developers verify that rate?

I’m only asking because of 2 things ive noticed :

1) I found my first frost kit in a half hour BUT I;ve found no Brakie after 8+ hours of farming its spot I found my first Nilo in aproxiamately the amount of time and then went more than 2 hours not seeing another - I was training on that spot for exp. I also found a frostjack, musharoo and Levi all relatively quickly.

2) According to this : http://wow.joystiq.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/  with a 1 in 200 rate in 400 attempts you should have an 80% chance of seeing one. In over two thousand attempts I’ve only seen one.   The basic principle is that even though 1 in 200 is a rare occurrence and everytime you go you still keep a 1 in 200 chance so doing it 200 times would only be a 60% chance.

According to this calculator 8-10 hour grinds for no ark should be statistical anomalies and yet the story seems common. Is it possible that the rare rates are affected by last spawn?

Has any one else found that they find their first rare easier than the others?

If I’m not mistaken, only the hatchlings and starters are at a 1/200 rate. Nilo, I presume is at a 1/80 chance.

It is a 1/200 chance for hatchlings and starters.  Nilo, not sure.

1/200? Thats very weird as im sure I needed more then 200 for leafy

Probability is not a fixed determination. There is always a luck factor involved. It’s a 1 in 200 chance , not a given. That’s why some people find them in their first battles and others struggle.

It’s 1 in 200 but this is fixed so after your second battle it’s still 1/200, after third battle it’s still 1/200.

Think it this way.

In a bowl there’s 200 balls, all black except 1.

If you were to take 1 out, & not put it back. The probability to take out black is gonna be 1/199.

But this is not the case if you take 1 & put it back. The probability will stay being 1/200.

Saying that though, the devs have made sure that you will at least see these hatchlings/starters after 2000 battles (if you were this unlucky).

If you actually hit 2000 battles, something’s is terribly, terribly wrong and you should definitely stop playing for a few days, let your luck go back to normal

Haha well i started farming with 16k gold when i went searching for leafie and i ended up with 54k after U caught it, i killed Every ark kn my way so Thats way more than 2000

There is apparently the guaranteed factor. After 2000 attempts one will show but starters are not worth the effort homestly both are mediocre. Go for wyrms

Silver you meant?

For future references, Nilo has a 2% spawn rate.

Took the words right from my mouth. ^^

Er, except if you don’t put the black ball back, the probability will be 0/199. I think. :s

Probabilities can often seem very unfair to some and extremely fair to others.  With a 1/200 chance, if 10,000 players, all try to farm a spot today, 5 players would get the rare ark on the first try, 489 of the players would get the ark within the first 10 tries but 66 of the “unlucky” players would not get anything after 1,000 tries.  The ones that do not get anyting after 1,000 tries are more likely to post their displeasure on the forum making it seem to be a common occurence when in fact many more of the players got their ark without too much dificulty.

I personally do not like the way the odds are currently handled.  It would be much better to decrease the initial odds to say 1/400 but then as you farm the odds increase after each failure to 1/399, 1/398, 1/397, and so forth.   Once you get a rare ark the probability resets.  This is equivalent to pulling balls out of a bag but not returning them until you find the one you want.  When you find it, you put all the balls back into the bad. The average probability of getting your ark will still be close to the 1/200 but the disparity between the “lucky” and “unlucky” players will be much smaller and you will always be guaranteed to get a ark after 400 tries.  On the average, it will still take just as long to farm 20 or 30 rare arks but the without as much fustration for the very “unlucky” player.  At least during farming you know you are getting closer to your goal instead of the current situation where you can fail after 2000 tries with the knowledge that statistically you are no closer to getting the ark than when you first started.

I think the developers should implement this approach for the rare arks.  It may keep some players from quitting out of fustration and the total number of arks farmed will remain approximately the same as it is now.  It only requires the program to keep a single counter of attempts are one location.  If a player starts farming a for a rare ark at a different location, the counter would reset back to zero meaning if you want an ark, you must stay at the same location until you get it.

Apologies in advance if I misunderstood, but there’s already something like that, except with 2000 battles. I think.

This 2000 thing DOES accumulate, so you are guaranteed a hatchling after 2000 battles. This is for the extremely unlucky people.

But this does not affect spawn rate. The spawn rate will always be 1/200. But instead of having that small probably of actually farming 5000 times, you get one after 2000 fights. If you get one before you get to 2000, no-luck fights, the counter resets back to zero.

Maybe they should lower this cap to 1000.

@ Kook

The 2000 battle ceiling is baloney. I’ve gone more than 2500 battles with no brakie in one stretch. Some ones not telling the whole story.

According to the developers, the cap exists.

Are you absolutely 100% certain you hit 2500?

That seems REALLY unlikely that you hit 2500 with no Brakie. At worst, you should’ve hit it at 2000

It may have FELT like 2500, but I doubt you hit 2500

Yeah like dead said, it may FEEL that way but unless you were actually counting im pretty sure you didnt

The problem may be that 2000 tries will take around 4 hours using the Metallo escape method. After that long, it is easy to get the rare ark and then hit escape without registering it.

It was 8 hours straight. 2500 is a low end estimate. And now Im having problems finding skullrex. People here say hes common. Hours in the cave and nothing now an hour on the spot said here and nothing.