This is 1% of 0.5%, when calculating hatchling/starter S grades?
I can apreciate that.
It’s based on S grades from testing against the biteschools (so we are currently under the asusmption all ARK’s share the same grade assignment table. Unlike common, uncommon, rare, very rare ARK’s that have their own percent spawn tables.).
While i do agree with the satement “it’s 1% chance at an S grade” (this is the truest of anything said, using the above stated assumption) I like to be the debbie downer and throw out there that it might be prudent to take into account actualy spawning a rare in the calculation.
I do like this thread a lot though. I can’t really say why to be honest.
I guess there should be a disclaimer with this thread, stating we have not received cofirmation that all rarities of ARK’s share the same grade assignment percentages
I’m sorry, I’m not understanding this… ^^; I know it was based off of biteschools, but since biteschools are super common, it’s 1% of a biteschool spawn to get a biteschool? So a 1% of x%?
I really have no idea.
Grade assignment table? Spawn tables?
Y’all don’t have to explain it, it’s just that I’m curious, but I can’t understand. Haha
Generally game data is stored in tables. I will start this by stating this is by NO MEANS what this games tables look like, but as a learning tool. This is potentially what we could see.
figure 1 (refer to attached thumbnail)
figure 2 (refer to attached thumbnail)
OK so the first table is what the game would first look at. It spins a wheel with those chances to receive those types of creature on that tile. Lets assume our tile has common, uncommon and super rare ARK’s in it. you would most likely see Common(80% of the time) and occasionally see an uncommon (15% of the time), and VERY rarely(1% of the time) see a super rare at that tile. (think of the dragonling farming.)
So the game determines these creatures are spawned:
figure 3 (refer to attached thumbnail)
But before they hit the screen it also rolls for a grade for each of those creaures, so it looks at the second table and hits those percents to determine the grade.
The game determines for this set:
figure 3 (refer to attached thumbnail)
So based on the figures I am using in this reply, and this reply only, here is what probability Kind of looks like.
figure 4 (refer to attached thumbnail)
Of corse this is the crash course version, and by no means does it reflect the actual games values, but hopefully it helped =D
EDIT: It didnt take my tables… attaching a thumbail shortly for easier viewing.
See below thumbnail
You did a pretty good job explaining it. I understand it a bit more now, but I always thought it was a % of a %.
As in, there’s a 100% chance of spawning an arkadion, right? And you get an S 5% of the time. So that means there’s a 5% chance of getting an S of a 100% spawn rate, right? (these are just explanations, not legit things)
Or maybe this. 0.5% chance of spawning a galey. There’s a 5% chance of 0.5% to get an S galey. So there would be a 0.025% chance of getting an S galey (not legit, again, just an example).
ralisticly both are correct.
5% of all spawned ark’s (using our example) should be S grade.
and when you try to factor in rarity (such as your galey example) it is (depending on the developer) % * % or .25% using your above numbers. (again this thread feels more like theory craft and that’s why i like it, but I doubt we’ll receive confirmation.) Some folks (given enough time) will most likely figure out the exact numbers though, or rather get ballpark.
Oh, I see. x> Thanks Yonfire!
It would be nice to get some numbers, but, well, for now let’s just throw a party if you get A+ hatchling/starter, yeah? 
I think I’d break into a spontaneous dance if I got an S/A rank starter or hatchling after looking at the probabilities…
I already do. ^^;
Lol pretty much kookaset
I honestly believe its different. I found an S charub and S frostjack after 5 - 10 run-ins with the creatures. It could be luck but a lot of people have a lot of s ranked fusions
Luck has a lot to do with things like this. Probabilities are estimates based on large sample size; an individual’s actual experiences can significantly vary from what gets predicted in mathematics.
As for S grade fusions, Grade Boosters help immensely for the unlucky.
Sadly… I live by this lol!
It’s also worth pointing out that I don’t know the exact formula for what determines the rank of the combo, but I know if you combine an A rank and an S rank ark, the new combo ark will be S rank.
The formula is something like if the two ranks are one apart it goes with the higher of the two, two apart it meets in the middle. Don’t know what would happen if you combined A with D though for instance.
I personally got lucky and had an S rank Frostjack to go with an A rank Skullwraith. However I was a little less lucky the second time around with a D rank Cherub and a C rank Frostjack.
On another note, while I had a little better luck getting higher ranked Frostjacks, they appeared next to never. The two I caught were the only two I saw after a fairly long time of clicking in the same space over and over.
If you combine a A and a D, it’ll come out as a C.
Same with combining an S and D. It’ll be a B.
Basically the average.
Correct^
Now what would those numbers look like on an egg?