Hatchling encounter statistics

Hunter Island Hunter Island General Discussion
1

I though it would be fun and useful to post some statistics on encountering a hatching in the confirmed spawn locations.

According to the mods and other members of the forum, there is a 1 in 200 chance of encountering a hatchling (this seems about right given my success and the success of others on the forum). This means that there is a 0.5% chance to find a hatchling per arkadion that spawns in a battle, it follows then that the binomial distribution can be used to calculate the odds of a hatchling spawning in various scenarios. There are three scenarios for a battle, either one, two, or three arkadions spawning

Here’s the results:

if three Arkadions spawn in a battle then the chance to find:

1 hatchling = 1.485%

2 hatchlings in the same battle = 0.0075%

3 hatchlings in the same battle = 0.0000125%

if two Arkadions spawn in a battle then the chance to find:

1 hatchling = 0.995%

2 hatchlings in the same battle = 0.0025%

if one Arkadion spawns in the battle then the chance to find:

1 hatchling = 1 in 200 or 0.5%

The average chance to find one hatchling on any given battle is 0.993% 

Now, here’s some more useful information from this result:

for every 10 battles fought, there is a 9.50% chance to encounter a hatchling

for every 100 battles fought, there is a 63.1% chance to encounter a hatchling

for every 500 battles fought, there is a 99.3% chance to encounter a hatchling

Hope this helps!

2

Thanks, I usually run from statistics

3

That 500-99.3% seems like a long shot, but I really have NO idea on how to calculate statistics, so…

4

Do you mind doing the same thing for the starters?

5

The starters have the same spawn rate, but I don’t think it’s possible for three arkadions to spawn in a battle. So just ignore the “three arkadions in a battle” and there you go. ^^

6

I’ve done way over 500 each looking for both Brackie and Bluey, haven’t found either yet…

7

ive gotten all four dragons in less than 4 hours i got extremly lucky

8

2 or more hatchlings in one fight sounds so crazy unbelievable :stuck_out_tongue: That would never happen 

9

Well, apparently it’s a 0.0075 - 0.0000375% chance. Per battle.

10

What about how many minutes or hours it will take according to these statistics? Is anyone able to calculate how long on average 100 battles or 500 battles takes assuming you have an arkadion who can defeat all enemies in one move?
From counting I find each battle takes aprox. 10 seconds from when I click the spot to when I’m back at the map… Approx 14 seconds to when I’ve entered a second battle… If that helps?

11

There was a screenshot floating around of an encounter with 2 hatchlings in one encounter. I do believe it’s possible, just very very unlikely to happen. This is again all assuming that the 1/200 chance per spawn is correct, which is suggested by the data I’ve found on the forum and my own experience with the game. Also, keep in mind that the chance for more than one hatchling to appear in one battle is 3 in 40,000 battles for two hatchlings in the same battle, and 1 in 8 million for 3 hatchlings to appear in the same battle!! - so you’re right, it is very nearly impossible for three hatchlings to appear in one battle.

This is the correct encounter rate assuming 1/200 per spawn is a hatchling. The probability is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of 500 failures in a row and subtracting that from 1. I have enough dragons for a total of 4 omegawyrms at this point and took about a week of farming. all my hatchling encounters took between 5 and 300 battles, except for one, which took several hours, but It’s possible I killed one by accident without knowing. The metallodious trick really helps speed things up.

The metallodius trick will cut your time in half. It’s much much more effective for rare farming. I found this out the hard way as well. To answer your question, it’s about 7 seconds per battle using metallodius and 500 battles would take 3500 seconds, which is about 1 hour assuming no breaks. So you should get around 1 hatchling per hour of rigorous farming with metallodius, which is pretty close to what I’ve gotten.

—EDIT—

I found that screenshot, it was posted by Dopefiend2013 on the hatchlings/starters thread (page 6). I’ve attached it below. I assume it’s real, but it didn’t encounter this, so it could be fake still I guess.

http://www.hunterislandforum.com/index.php/topic/367-hatchlingsstarters/page-6

12

To make it easier, you can look at the odds it doesn’t spawn a hatchling, which is 99.007%. To calculate the odds of it never spawning a hachling over 500 battles, you simply do 0.99007^500, which is about 0.68%. In which case, he’s correct.

Also, it takes only about 230 battles to get to a 90% chance of spawning a hatchling, which is pretty nice :slight_smile:

13

Ah, I think you guys misunderstood me haha.

There are many cases of people having well over 500 battles with no hatchlings at all. 230 battles to get 90% of a hatchling… yes? I’m sure I hit that number many times, and I make sure I don’t accidentally kill them. 90% is very high and that means it should make your farming easier as you go on. But it doesn’t, because these chances don’t “accumulate.” 

Now, I’m not good at math, but I’m looking at it like this: you flip a coin and it’s 50/50 of getting heads or tails. But I get heads ten times in a row. It doesn’t accumulate, right?

These possibility/statistic things are really confusing to me. I’ll probably learn it later in school but right now I know nothing. Haha. Just ignore me. (I got lectured by two people in chat about statistics. Wasn’t pretty haha)

About the three arkadions thing, I didn’t mean that. I meant that when you’re farming for starters, you only get two arkadions in a battle. That means three starters are impossible to get in a battle, because only two spots are available. Two starters and two hatchlings are definitely possible, and so are three hatchlings in a battle, but three starters in a battle is not (UNLESS the spots they are in have three slots). Do they? My memory doesn’t serve me. ^^; 

14

300 battles, still no brackie :frowning:
Math hates me.

15

I think what OP means, and what 90% for 500 battles means is that if you fight 500 battles the probability on having found at least one hatchling is 90%. It doesn’t means that on fight 501 the probability of one hatchling spawning is 90%.

How to get to that result ? For those who want some reading and math :stuck_out_tongue:

[spoiler] Well you have to consider that for the universe’s probability is 1 as it is certain you’ll have something happen within it.

The probability on having one hatchling spawn is 0.01.

Now saying you want at least one hatchling in 500 arcs spawned. It’ll be the same probability as 1-(the probability that you get 0).

To calculate the probability to get 0 you use a binomiale law with 500 tries (n=500), the success (arc spawned is hatchling/starter) probability is 0.01 (p=0.01), the failure probability is 0.99 (arc spawned is not hatchling/starter) (1-p=q=0.99)

f0c4b1560fbbeade40594134b5c755b6.png.

and we should find something like 0.99^500 (~0.006 = 0.6%)

So therefore what does that mean ?

Well the probability of having found none after 500 arcs spawned should be around 1-0.006 => over 99%.

But if you do one more try that try will still be only 1% chance of having an arc be a rare. It’s just that over the time the probability of you having found 0 goes down a lot.[/spoiler]

With the example of the heads and tails coin.

[spoiler]You want to know the probability of flipping the coin ten times and getting at least one heads

Well same thing you want to calculate the probability of getting no heads in all the difference tries and subtract that to 1.

So in this example the probability of getting no heads after 10 tries can be calculated with the same laws as above.

You fin that the probability of having 0 heads in all your ten tries is 0.5^10 (=~0.0009)

Therefore 1-0.0009 is almost equal to 1 so almost certain.

So in ten tries you’re almost certain to flip at least once a head.

[/spoiler] 

If you want more detail on these probability laws they are all from the Bernoulli trials

I hope that that was what you were asking and you were brave enough to read it all :p 

That being said this doesn’t take in account the counter that is set in game to prevent someone from having to go that far to get one. So you get one automatically after a certain number of arcs have spawned without being hatchling/starters.

16

I can’t quote from my phone, but referencing the post above, pray tell what’s the number of arks to spawn before automatically getting one? I’m at 500 battles and counting, no brackie still.

So close to raging and delete app :((((

17

I do believe it’s 200 arcadions

But what we don’t know is if the counter goes +1 once the arc is spawned or once it is killed.

If it’s when it spawns then the counter works with the Escape technique.

If it’s when it is killed then the escape technique wouldn’t allow you to benefit from it.

But maybe wait for a confirmation on all this if someone has it to be sure :smiley:

18

I got all my hatchlings in a day using the escape method

19

@Zyphlan: It definitely cleared up some confusion! But, uh, I’m guilty of skipping that first spoiler. Once I saw the numbers I went :open_mouth: and closed it. But I got the general idea. ^^ Thank you!

20

Where do the hatchlings spawn