This is crazy

[ArcticTheHunter]

@bvs72

Probabilities can often seem very unfair to some and extremely fair to others. With a 1/200 chance, if 10,000 players, all try to farm a spot today, 5 players would get the rare ark on the first try, 489 of the players would get the ark within the first 10 tries but 66 of the “unlucky” players would not get anything after 1,000 tries. The ones that do not get anyting after 1,000 tries are more likely to post their displeasure on the forum making it seem to be a common occurence when in fact many more of the players got their ark without too much difficulty.

Rare ark becomes legend, tries/battles becomes eggs, and this is a better explanation than I could ever give. Granted, bvs72 was supposedly a NASA scientist, so no surprises there. Note that the statistics are wrong for the current example(the odds he was talking about were way lower than ours), but the point remains the same.