Tricky question. I know in some other games, such as Digimon World 1, they use a counter. Say something will happen at a chance of 1%, if the counter is at 1, it will happen, if it is at 2-100, it will not happen. When you do certain actions, the counter will +1. Hence it is not truly random.
In this game, are things truly random? Or based on a hidden counter?
Well, the hatchlings apparently have a counter. For each battle you fight, it adds 1 to the counter. This counter resets every time a rare is spawned. If the counter hits 2000, and you STILL haven’t gotten a hatchling, you’re guaranteed one (in either that battle or the next).
At least that’s what I’ve heard.
To be honest, I’m not sure
That would be a question to ask the devs
Is it 2000 or 200?
The counter is supposedly 2000. The spawn rate is 1/200 per arkadion.
I heard someone say something about the counter before release, so I was wondering too.
I think it’s once you hit 2000, you have to get a hatchling or starter
But by probability when I do it 2000 times I should have got 10 hatchlings. The chance of not getting one in 2000 fights is (100%-0.5%)^2000 = 0.004%. That is 4 in every 100000 people. Hopefully I am not one of those 4!
I think people are sort of dragging math too far into this. If you have a 50% chance of getting monster A or monster B you can get monster A ten times in a row. Or one hundred times in a row, if you’re super unlucky.
There’s something that can calculate… this… but I have no idea what it’s called and even thinking about it makes my head hurt, so I’m just going to go and don’t think about how many times I have to tap a spot before I get a hatchling. 
That’s over thinking it a tad too much there
That’s the WORST case scenario
I appear to have given the worst cSh scenario. I’ve been farming hours a day for a month.
*cough**cough* 4 in 1000 it would be .00004 for 4 in 100000
Nope, 4 out of 100 is 4% > 4 out of 1000 is 0.4, 4 out of 10000 0.04, 4 out of 100000 is 0.004
Cough2 you… Happy new year but you necro thread in 2013!!!
I’played 3 hours solid yesterday 4-5 attacks per minute and again for another hour last night at the same rate that’s 1200 attacks.
What a waste of time for a leafey.
And yes I’m on the first step.
I’ve been farming the hatchlings for a couple of days now, while watching TV haha (It’s pretty boring, which is unfortunate game design, but whatever).
I used the Metallodious escape to make things quicker, as well as a couple of Seaspines that only do around 20 damage every time they are hit. When the little dragons would finally appear, I would kill off the other arcs (if any) and then just let it attack me until it’s capture chances was 100% for the middle capture arc stone.
To make things a bit more interesting I used http://textmechanic.com/Online-Tally-Counter.html on my laptop next to me to count how many times it took me to get each hatchling, you use the spacebar to increment the counter so it’s very easy to keep count that way by just pressing spacebar every time you zoom in to start a battle.
So for the first Leafy I had to do probably 1500 battles, and ironically I accidentally escaped out of that battle and missed my chance to capture him. Then 1200 battles later he appeared again, and that time I captured him.
Then I moved on to Ashie and he took about 400 battles to appear, and I again accidentally escaped and missed that capture as well. You can understand how pleased I was with this …
I continued and after about 150 battles he appeared again, and this time I captured him!
Then next hatchling (Bluey) took about 400 battles and the last one (Galey) around 1000. So it seems that these 1/200 odds might be a bit off, at least from this experiment.
If I ever farm for them again (I just might, I just finished creating an Omegawyrm with these guys and I kinda want one of each of the Magma and Typhon wyrms to go along with it, so I need 4 new hatchlings *sigh*
If you are about to start farming and want to keep tally, I recommend you use that website I linked to count for you, it is a bit more interesting to know exactly(ish - I forgot to write mine down) how many tries it takes.
Edit: Next round, actual numbers before I forget:
Leafy: 205 battles
Ashie: 81 battles
Bluey: 145 battles
Galey: 1708 battles
So, yea, the variance in how many battles it takes is quite high.
Edit 2: Going for the starters now
Brakie: 148 battles
For Spark I gave up counting after over 2000 battles, I thought it was supposed to be a guaranteed drop at 2000 battles, but I didn’t get one (or perhaps I missed one but I’m pretty sure I didn’t)
Snorkling was probably around 200 battles.
For those wondering, using the method described above I seem to be averaging around 400 battles per hour, which is without really trying to go for speed, just casually doing this while watching TV, capturing S grade arcs along the way. I could probably do 500 an hour if I tried, easy. Indeed I just did 100 in 10 minutes with a little focus, so 600 an hour might be doable. It’s like a game within a game seeing how many battles you can do in an hour, but going too fast also runs the risk of accidentally missing the arc you’re farming for haha
Hasn’t been too long, hoping this isn’t a necro…
From what I was told awhile ago, there is a counter that keeps track of how long you have went without a rare arkadion or something. So I think it’s around 200 or maybe 400. You are guranteed to find a starter or hatchie after that counter is up. So I would assume you missed one or w few for a few of those trials, note how bluey and Ashie were th same amount of battles in the first trial
2000 actually ^