Probabilities can often seem very unfair to some and extremely fair to others. With a 1/200 chance, if 10,000 players, all try to farm a spot today, 5 players would get the rare ark on the first try, 489 of the players would get the ark within the first 10 tries but 66 of the “unlucky” players would not get anything after 1,000 tries. The ones that do not get anyting after 1,000 tries are more likely to post their displeasure on the forum making it seem to be a common occurence when in fact many more of the players got their ark without too much dificulty.
I personally do not like the way the odds are currently handled. It would be much better to decrease the initial odds to say 1/400 but then as you farm the odds increase after each failure to 1/399, 1/398, 1/397, and so forth. Once you get a rare ark the probability resets. This is equivalent to pulling balls out of a bag but not returning them until you find the one you want. When you find it, you put all the balls back into the bad. The average probability of getting your ark will still be close to the 1/200 but the disparity between the “lucky” and “unlucky” players will be much smaller and you will always be guaranteed to get a ark after 400 tries. On the average, it will still take just as long to farm 20 or 30 rare arks but the without as much fustration for the very “unlucky” player. At least during farming you know you are getting closer to your goal instead of the current situation where you can fail after 2000 tries with the knowledge that statistically you are no closer to getting the ark than when you first started.
I think the developers should implement this approach for the rare arks. It may keep some players from quitting out of fustration and the total number of arks farmed will remain approximately the same as it is now. It only requires the program to keep a single counter of attempts are one location. If a player starts farming a for a rare ark at a different location, the counter would reset back to zero meaning if you want an ark, you must stay at the same location until you get it.