A lot of people have been saying that the odds are fake, or biased, or that F2P and P2W have different odds. And, even as people disprove it using evidence, it is still spreading. Well, I am here to disprove it using logic, instead, and to show you how making the odds fake would be stupid based on game theory and economics. Assume that all of the following examples take place during the double gems event. Enjoy.
One of the most common claims made by people is that the odds are better for P2W players in order to spend more money. Well, to disprove this one, let’s look at an example.
Take a random F2P player. I’ll call him Jeff. Jeff want to awaken every mythic, and is considering whether he can afford to buy the gems. With a 1% chance to get a mythic, and 360 gems per $100, awakening every mythics would cost about $12000.
From Neo’s perspective, Jeff has a risk and a reward. The reward is how much money he will spend. The risk is how much money he THINKS that he will spend times X, how willing he is to spend money. For this case, the risk-reward is as follows:
Risk: 12000x
Reward: $12000
But, what if a P2W player actually has higher odds, and they get on average 2 mythics per $100? Well, Jeff doesn’t know this, so the risk stays the same. However, if he does spend money, he will spend only half as much, so the reward is halved
Risk: $12000x
Reward: $6000
If we say that the reward is R*I, where R is reward and I is the chance that a player will spend, then, by doubling the odds for P2W player, Neo has basically just lost $6000i for no reason, which is clearly dumb.
But it get worse
Let’s say that a Neo dev, having followed my logic so far, decides that the smartest course of action is to decrease the odds for P2W(or for everyone, it doesn’t matter).
Well then, to show how dumb that would be, let’s return to Jeff. Jeff has decided to join the P2W side, and has become quite popular and respected. Then, a dev halves the odds. Well Jeff, who hasn’t bought the eggs yet, decides to do so, and notices that he only got half his expected payout. Being the understandably annoyed, Jeff complains to his friends, who have, of course, been having the same problems. They take note, and, in secret, do an experiment. They spend about $11000 on one banner, logging every result, and, noticing that they got way less than they should have, they get mad. There are mass complaints on the forums. People who recorded their hatches upload them. But the worst is yet to come. People like Jeff, who have spent massive amounts of money on the game, pursue legal avenues. NTT Resonant discovers what happened and stops supporting Zigzagame for pr reasons. The code and the servers are examined and, since this is definitely fraud, Zigzagame is charged. Many people are fired, legal fees mount, and though Zigzagame may not go bankrupt, Neo is a bust and any future games will struggle.
Decreasing the odds in clearly stupid, too, then.
But what about something crazy, like a guaranteed legendary if you hatch at exactly midnight? Well, let’s go back to the good old risk-reward comparison.
Risk: >0
Reward: 0
As you can see based on this, some crazy thing where your WiFi strength or whatever affects your egg odds is also a bust.
In conclusion, there is no reason for Neo to alter the odds. Uou shouldn’t convict on circumstantial evidence, as they say. Changing the odds would be stupid, EXTREMELY illegal, and honestly pretty pointless.
You just got unlucky. That’s it. It happens to all of us. Stop blaming the game, and just forget about it. In the time it takes you to write an angry forum post about your luck, and defend it against all of the people arguing against you, you could have earned an extra egg or two to get back on the right track.
Thank you for coming to my TED talk
