No, that’s not what I want, I want to have civil conversations with people with common sense.
If you come and say “5 non featured mythics over 6 is average unluck” is obvious you want to annoy me because all of us know that is not nearly average.
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My calculations were for cumulative probability, hence why the binomial probability is slightly lower than what I said earlier.
Is. 004 over 100, not over 200
I think you misunderstood my point. My point wasn’t that you didn’t get unlucky this one time, my point was that, given that you hatch a LOT of eggs, perhaps the most of any player, you would expect this outcome to happen at least once
There are 200 sets of 50, you said it your self
.004 is the decimal equivalent of .4%, the calculator doesn’t allow for percentages as imputes
Yes but the probability of the event was 0.4%, so that means that happens 0.4 times every 100 sets.
You are talking about cumulative probability P(X>or=x), which is represented as the third result
That isn’t relevant here, though, since we are trying to calculate WITHOUT knowing the entirety of the sample size, whereas that is assuming that .4 per 100 sets is literally representative(like, “we counted up every hatch, and this exact scenario happened .4 times every 100 sets, how many would we expect to have if there were 200 sets instead” sort of thing)
Anyway I’ll cut is short, I didn’t hatch enough in all my Neo career for this event to become “likely to happen”.
Hance that I am disappointed.
I would expect that to happen in 50k-100k packs but still very rarely 2-4% chances.
This inflates the numbers considerably, but isn’t representative of the situation at hand. Honestly, I hope this shows that I am not out to get you, since I could have said the .8 is the probability and technically been right, but I instead went for a more accurate number that didn’t help my case nearly as much
I literally JUST showed you the odds of this happening if you only opened 10k packs, which you yourself said was a conservative estimate
Yes I should be around 13-14k probably, I don’t have the exact number but more or less we are in between I guess.
