So mythics have been out for about 8 months now. I’ve been playing for 534 login days. I am F2P. I’ve had the full 8 months of actively playing all pve and pvp events since mythics came out and currently have a total of 43 legends but have not pulled a single mythic. Is anyone else in the same boat as me? The odds must be ridiculously low.
All depends on how many eggs you have opened.
That’s quite unlucky. Even with the free gems you should have a decent probability at least getting some. Worst case I would say but you don’t miss out that much because most of them are in their 2nd form not that useful
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A fair amount. I’d guess 3-4 rare egg hatches per month plus maybe 3 packs of 10 from gems. Obviously not perfectly accurate numbers but it should be a decent ballpark.
It depends on precisely how many gems you’re getting. If we assume an average of, say, 20 gems per week, then that’s 80 gems per month, and 640 gems over 8 months. That’s 16 10-packs, which also earns 3 rare gem rolls on top of the rare gems you earn normally. 2 rare gems in daily bonuses per month, plus probably a single 5 RG package from the every 100 day thing, plus, let’s say, an additional 5 rare gems per month from events, that’s a total of 16 + 16 + 5 + 40 = 77, which we’ll round up to 80, which is 16 rare eggs.
Each normal egg is a 1% chance. In 160 eggs, the odds of not getting any mythics from that is almost exactly 20%, or 1 in 5.
Meanwhile rare eggs are a 4% chance. In 16 rare rolls, the odds of getting 0 mythics are ~52%, or 1 in 2.
So in total, the odds of no mythics from either type of egg are about 10.4%, or about 1 in 9.5. I hate to say it, but that’s not terribly unlikely. My assumptions may be a little off, but absolute worse case scenario would probably be 1 in 20 or 30 or so.
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Thanks, this is probably the most accurate math that can be expected from the situation with so many variables. I’ve started keeping logs of what I roll and when so I can compare it to the advertised odds.
Probability math isn’t super complicated thankfully.
Yeah nah. I’m actually in college pursuing a statistics degree, but so far I haven’t really needed any of the material I’ve picked up to do the calculations I’ve done here lol. It really is basic.
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I only have three now, I can get about 120 gems or more per month.
Noted, I’ll see what I can cook up for you 
Maybe you want to work out the variance on monster entrance speed?
- Seconds from entry = (35 + (100-speed) * 0.8) * [potion factor] * variance
P.S. If you really do try to calculate this… little hint I can give is I think that once potions get applied then the variance changes. I could come up with a reliable variance for non-potted monsters that worked consistently but as soon as they got potted then they started getting wacky.
Without any copies?
Yes.but this month is no big activity. 
I have played nearly four years. Have completed all pve events except IC and whale since mythics have been released.
PVP account: just one useless mythic now. Not pvp account any more.
Main account and oldest account: three mythics including dupes, respectively.
Your poor luck is not alone.
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