If the devs could give me some statistics on daily players, I could give you the exact odds
I am not talking about how objective or not you are.
What makes it toxic is your target, to make feel people bad.
My target is not to make you feel bad, my target is to point out the absurdity of your claims of the eggs being rigged or you account being cursed or whatever
Ok so if someone would lose a loved one you would answer: âMany people die everydayâ thatâs toxic.
Back to statistics, you have claimed that you have opened way more than 10000 packs. Therefore, the odds that you would get .4% odds out of at least one set of 50 of them is a little over 55%, assuming that you opened exactly 10000.
The math on that
10000 divided by 50 is 200, meaning that there are 200 sets of 50. The odds of NOT getting the result DonT got from one of those sets is .996. .996^200 is a little over .44, meaning that the odds that, in 10000 pack, at least one set of 50 would NOT be this result is a bit over 44%.
Subtract that from 1, and you get a 55% chance of this scenario happening at least once to DonT
That means that it is actually unlikely that this WOULDNâT happen to you at some point. So, uh, yeah. A better comparison to DonT would be if a celebrity with millions of followers thought that someone was out to get them because 2 of their followers died in the same week.
@ArcticTheHunter you are not getting your position any better, you are doing even worst.
Of course, depending on how nit picky you want to get, there are technically 9950 sets of 50 consecutive packs that you could get from 10000 total packs opened, at which point the odds of an event with .004 chance NOT happening is essentially 0, but Iâll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you are not cherry picking in the slightest
Maximum Nickpicking
If you remove the requirement of the packs being consecutive, there are approximately 8.428649e+207 possible combinations of 50 packs in 10000 total, and an event with a .004 chance of happening now seems like a given
ByâŚshowing my work and using real math to disprove your claims, claims that we donât even have any evidence for since you still refuse to record any hatches in which you donât get unluckier than expected?
Bad luck sucks.
I recorded, I need to find the inner strength to upload such a defeating hatch.
I donât question math. I question your way to talk and your lack of understanding towards people.
Thatâs why I repeat that to me you look very toxic, in real life I would have nothing to do with people like you.
conspiracy theory 1.0, dont89 is the biggest spender in the game is he less likely to get what he wants so he has to spend more? (I donât answer comments haha)
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So do you agree that you got the expected outcome?
I talk in what is as close as I can get to perfect, dictionary accurate English. If you get anything else from my speech patterns, I can assure you that it is accidental. I try to convey my point as precisely as possible.
Youâre right, I donât understand why you continue to fight this point when it has been proven over and over that you are not getting worse than average luck. Would you care to explain?
I agree that is a 0.4% chance event. So very unlucky.
All the rest of your talk is pure BS.
Besides your math skill is very questionable, how come that you have 9950 set of 50 packs in 10000 packs?
You have exactly 200 sets, which makes the event going from 0.4 to 0.8%
So yeah you just brag being skills in math when you donât even know what you are talking about.
@ArcticTheHunter Please desist from irritating DonT any more on this matter. The conversation is a little excessive
@ArcticTheHunter you just got told that you have no idea what you are talking about by the same person who came up with this. you should feel ashamed of yourself
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So, your first set is the first pack to the 50th pack. The second set is the 2nd pack to the 51st pack. Etc.
What? WHAT?! What is your logic here? .996^200 is a little over .44. If you can give any reasoning for this math, then please do. I am utterly baffled.
Btw it takes ~533 eggs on average to get four copies of a featured mythic. This means that anyone who awakens a mythic in under ~2133 gems has above average luck with the hatch. I think a sizeable amount of DonTâs hatches fall under this category but one would have to examine all of DonTâs hatches to see that the total is very close to the average for all monster rarities.
@Killerdog Please tell DonT to stop misunderstanding my posts and making claims about both math and me that he refuses to provide any explanation for
Iâve done my fair share of giving DonT a hard time but as someone not involved in this discussion I can see how he didnât want to engage with you yet you repeatedly posted about numbers to him. He knows the odds in this case, heâs just disappointed that despite managing to hatch mythics this time he got really unlucky with how few were the featured one. Just leave him be, thatâs what he clearly wants.
Please donât talk back to me when Iâm telling you not to do something in an official capacity. Iâm just trying to promote peaceful and positive discussion.
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If each set has 50 packs in it, 10000 packs are 200 sets.