there has been a huge conflict in forum regarding egg hatches between 2 sides. So i just took this as a fun activity to see what are the results if egg hatches are simulated as per the number stated in the egg info page.
1 pack = 10 eggs
10 packs= 100 eggs = 400 gems
Here are the results :
Here u can see there are 3 consecutive 10 packs meaning ( a total of 1200 gems did not give me a mythic )
Another 100 eggs each time :
There are again possibilities of hatching zero mythics in 400 gems
In this try , almost 1 mythic is guaranteed in 400 gems
There is a rare chance to get 3 mythics in 400 gems in this try
Very unlucky pack , seems like Dont and @SHIKAOTOKO
hatched these packs.
Now i hatched 300 eggs at a time and as u can see someone got 8 MYTHICS in 1200 gems while someone got just 1 mythic in 1200 gems.
There is a wide range of lucky and unlucky players in this 1200 gems pool.
Someone hatched just 1 mythic ( Dont)
someone else hatched fricking 7 mythics in same amount of gems
A very standard hatch pool again , 200 eggs = 800 gems = atleast 1 mythic.
Dont hatched 1 mythic again , im sorry bruh
Another standard results.
In this 1600 gems pool , average is 3-4 mythics and unlucky ones hatched just 2 … !!
Important observation here is someone hatched just 1 mythic in 300 eggs (1200 gems , must be dont again)
This is the egg hatch samples ive been looking for . There are 4 consecutive 100 eggs with 0 mythics (1600 gems ) So it is possible that someone might not even have a mythic in 1600 gems.
A few other samples:
I welcome @DonT89 to use this as an example that anything can happen and i certainly havent rigged it up . Im starting to believe u just got very unlucky everytime buddy cos it seems what uve experienced so far is pretty possible with the stated odds.
@Killerdog can use this to extrapolate ur data to make more convincing arguments.
Oh also , my observation is u r pretty much guaranteed a mythic in 1000 gems . But there is a slight possibility u might not get anything.
It seems to happen this way in consecutive packs more than alternate packs. so might be silly but as @someone-idont-remember said if u dont get a mythic in 800 gems, its time to stop and try another time…or never try that egg atall…
Thank you all, Good day and hope u r not the guy who hatched zero mythics in 1600 gems.
The possibility of not obtaining a mythical in 1600 gems is something very worrying even for p2w since if it were I would think about it before spending the equivalent of 1600, there being the possibility of not obtaining any mythical even though it is low, perhaps this suggestion is a little crazy from a f2p but what if every 1000 gems will be a mythical and a legendary limited guaranteed? seems fair enough to me. on the other hand I want to be the first to thank you for bothering to do this as it is very useful as an average hatching argument
Absolutely , I believe this should be the topic of focus for us all hereafter… There is no point in discussing the odds since anything is possible with given odds as shown
I’ve already written too much on this topic. Thanks for providing some data though. I hope the doubters of Neo odds take the time to have a look through and change their mind
Do you think that at some point they guarantee a mythical every certain number of gems as in the example that I put or it is just a dream that is not going to come true
neo originally had guaranteed legendary at 6 packs , they removed it when they added mythics. i have no idea why
I do not know exactly every time but legendary every certain amount and a mythical each other is a good way to make it worth saving more, I think that in a couple of updates I am going to collect criteria of f2w and f2p players and make a thread about the topic
Stopping at a given gem point doesn’t change the odds it just prevents psychological damage and makes it easier to handle.
I saw the results and unfortunately are very far from my real Neo hatches. Very.
This one are you doing with keeping population in mind or just single player RNG?
There is no population factor.
It’s not a real basket with eggs. It simulates every single pull individualy.
Of course someone else getting a mythic definitely doesn’t affect your probability of getting one…
Most of Real Life Problems are constrained. It means if the lottery ticket is already sold your chances of getting one are 0 or very close to it in this case.
This theory was briefly in discussion by some of us but they r just theories cos we don’t have proof so everything was considered seperateky
Than shouldn’t all of us talking about the Payouts being some sort of Binomial Distribution also be theory? I mean it could easily be any other distribution out there?
yeah just ignore the fact that your real neo hatches actually support the given hatching rates lol