That’s true, but setting that as the bottom line would mean there’s no reason to complain about the pity timer exploiting making some gambling addictions a bit worse since it’s eliminating the bottom 10% of mythic hatch outcomes. A 12 pack timer simply takes the psychological effects of the 30 pack timer and extends it to several times the players as before, many of whom won’t already be addicted to spending and therefore more likely to have a change in spending behavior.
So you are telling me that:
A 12th guaranteed pack is pushing people to change behaviour.
A 30th guaranteed pack is simply rewarding high spenders that were getting unlucky.
But taking away the gambling component 12th guaranteed pack is way better for the rest of the community which can plan and save gems 4-5 monthly for a certain mythic.
Nope! Both of them are pushing people towards unhealthy spending habits even if they do statistically raise the hatching odds.
While it would reward spenders that were getting unlucky, it would also worsen some players’ gambling addictions to a certain degree. I just don’t think said degree is as great as a lot of ppl are making it out to be. I’d say that most of the players who’d push for the 30 pack timer are already addicted to spending since psychological factors like the sunken cost fallacy via abysmal 0.75% chance hatching rates are far greater than a guarantee that only has a 10% chance of happening.
Since we’re all in agreement that the pity timer does prey on gambling addicts to varying degrees, let’s talk about how to improve the timer in a way that’s reasonable for the devs to implement. Making the pity timer carry over from banner to banner seems like the best option to get rid of the loss aversion fallacy, but you would run into the issue of it essentially being a free 3 mythic tickets whenever you go 29 packs without getting the featured mythic. That would’ve been literally 9 free mythic tickets for me in the past year and I didn’t even spend that much while aiming for suikenshi and satomi. I think it’s safe to say having the pity timer carry over from banner to banner while also guaranteeing the featured mythic is far too unreasonable to ask of the devs.
I think the best plan would be to make the pity timer carry over but only guarantee a mythic hatch, featured or not. It could then be lowered to 25 or 20 packs if deemed necessary. While I personally would not want a change like this to happen since it’s worse statistically speaking, it would definitely have a lot less potential for harming parts of the playerbase.
I’m not writing an essay but why did I get tagged for making a joke about you saying people with more experience in the matter are wrong lol
Killerdog admits you made him look stupid so you should take the compliment 
You were there liking Sherlock’s posts that were showing misunderstanding of my points (e.g. thinking I was trying to say all people make rational decisions) and you also engaged with me by making that joke. Part of my reply was to you, the bit about trying to make me look stupid which tbh really didn’t help me try to have a proper discussion here and wasn’t very nice. I’m glad others enjoyed the joke but it didn’t get the depth of what I was actually saying which was “the psychology concept is correct, but the application here is incorrect”.
Tbh, I think all of Sherlock’s side of the argument is an extreme reaction to this all. The effects of the fortune shrine and other similar changes/additions to the game were worthy discussing morality but here it’s a thing that will affect a tiny percentage of the player base. I’m not going to bother writing any more. It’s a shame people took issue with this pity timer, I think it’s great we have one now.
Can confirm i p2w 30 packs to do an awakening lmfaoo fident hit me financialy or anything tho
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Here we go again 
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In the meantime you fight for it, I already activated pity timer for the first time 
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You’d have spent the money anyway so congrats on the extra featured mythic!
Took me 66 packs to awaken.
I have 17 tickets, I didn’t really have to spend money on it, but I could use potting some of my legendaries via eggs.
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Tell us how your experience was, did you feel it as something positive/negative?
Uhm… I don’t know really what to say, nobody likes hanging for 30 packs without a mythic, but overall knowing that could not be more than that is somehow positive.
I need to answer this question when I will find myself in a situation that I cannot spend that much, this time I was pretty much free to buy as much as I wanted, so 66 packs to awaken a mythic was not a big deal.
But I have also to say that the experience of going over 50 packs to awaken a mythic is never totally positive as this game is very expensive so I expect this pity timer to come down at some point.
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A positive option would be for the pity counter to continue between banners (not my idea, the guys commented on it during a chat, to give them credit =) )
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It’s funny how you - who has absolutely zero (!) educational background in this matter - are so confident to tell other people - who have the mentioned background - that their application of the concept is wrong. The sheer arrogance of your attitude is beyond anything.
It would be best if we stopped arguing about what would be better or not.
Now it’s there and will probably stay
Having credentials doesn’t automatically mean you’re correct. Sorry if I appeared arrogant in my phrasing, but I simply didn’t think the application was correct and haven’t heard anything back except “go educate yourself”. I did actually go rewatch that video you mentioned (saw it years ago) and the one relevant bit was talking about loss aversion but the example given was drastically different to what we have here with the pity timer. We could just as easily say you’re assuming you’re correct and belittling anyone that says otherwise.
You know I’m not here to fight and we agree about how it should be improved as a system (our chat elsewhere). We just disagree about it creating more gambling problems for the players.
Yeah, thats true. But same goes for having no credentials.
My point was: Lets assume someone does not have the budget to roll for 1200 gems. I think thats the only scenarios that matters because I guess nobody would doubt that the pity timer would be great for whales. Now lets also assume that this person isnt making rational choices and does not have the impulse control to save up to 1200 gems. Without the pity timer, if you had spent 800 gems, there was a slight chance that people would stop spending and accept they wouldnt get the myth. It wasnt super high and I agree with @NMEduck that the bad odds are the main reason for that. The pity timer further reduces that slight chance of people not overspending because it gives you further incentive to continue to spend until 1200. Because a.) you know you will get the mythic guaranteed and b.) if you stop spending you will lose your pity timer. So if you stop spending now you will have the situation that you lost out on not only 1 but 2 things: You lost your pity timer and you didnt get the myth. In my opinion the non carrying over pity timer shuts an exit door for people who struggle with spending too much. I know it wasnt very likely that people would have stopped spending at that point in the past. And I also know the example in the video was different but you cant deny it definitely triggers loss aversion. But I am convinced that the non carrying over part added an unnecessary additional hurdle to stop spending.
The reason I am so vivid about this is that it easily could be fixed by making the pity timer carry over. Its just a tiny change and I see no good reason not to do it. I agree that the shrine or the half price mythics are also highly problematic but I have no good solution to tackle that problem. I think you and me both were very critical of the shrine when it came out but we were in the vast minority and other than “getting rid of it” I have no good idea on how to make the shrine less bad for people who struggle with overspending. Same goes for the half price mythics. Theres no tiny change I could propose that would make some kind of big difference.
Its different here. A tiny change could make a difference here. Thats why I am pushing for it.
Edit: I also think that the pity timer would work better if it would carry over. Lets for example take your method of rolling where you look at the banner and only roll if you do not own the majority of the featured monsters. If you get 2 featured legends after lets say 20 packs you’d need to stop spending. Thats 20 packs. Next time the myth is featured with different legends and you roll again, getting the legend you do no own after 13 packs. Now you have gone 33 packs without the featured mythic. Thats very bad luck. Yeah, you did not spend it as a bunch but for me it kind of doesnt make sense to being forced to spend 1200 gems on a banner I own everything but the mythic. Thats kind of a waste. If I am stubborn and consequent with this method the pity timer would only save me if I get very unlucky with legends lol.
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Thanks for elaborating better. It seems the crux of the difference in thinking is you believe there are a reasonable number of players who open 20 packs on a single egg who don’t have the normal capability to afford going to 30 packs but will now get drawn into it. On my side, I believe the vast majority of people are not opening 20 packs on an egg and those that are mostly either hoard gems well and can prepare properly or can afford spending more money to buy gems. Some people will definitely get drawn in by it but since it’s only at the 10% threshold those people won’t even have it happen to them that frequently.
Responding to your edit…
Yeah, for legendaries this pity timer is very backwards. I find that aspect very annoying.
My opinion on it:
If someone was opening countless packs on the banner - its good to know it caps out at 30.
F2P can also benefit from it. Just save 1200 gems and you can target any myth you have at +6 without risk of loosing all the gems you saved up for such a long time. I am glad they only reset it after featured myth pops up.
Imo if you want to keep it at 30 (1200 gems is a lot), you could at least make it reccure to other banners. So every 30 packs if you dont get any featured mythic you get one guaranteed next pack.
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