I was going to wait to post this
But here is the speed variance so far it’s been 100% accurate and I spent a lot of time testing it and working it out.
Each bonus adds 1 sec speed
Speed variable comes into play if there is more then 6 seconds difference if so it gets cut by 5 seconds
The speed variable can fluctuate
By 0 - 3 seconds so if the difference between two monsters is between this amount who goes first is determined by random
The monsters on your team can influence the random 0-3 second variable either to be favourable or unfavourable
The 3 second random variable only shows up with a higher speed difference the exact amount I have not pin pointed
So most times its 0-2 with 3 being rare
For the most part your right. I’ll its not quite that drastic though. I’ll use my soylstealer and frostrider for example. My frost has a 55 speed and soul has 65 speed. I made frost a +9 but soul was a plus one. So my frost always went first by 3 seconds. Once soul was a plus2 it would be fifty fifty who would go first. Once I made soul to a +3 and my soul always went first by 1 or three TU. My soul is even more bonus so the gap has grown.
like all theory’s it’s being tested but I can guarntee the bonus adds speed
The random variable 0-3 I’m yet to fully understand as well but it seems on your part from the test you did it fits into my speed theory very well