for the translation?
I think youāre wrong, Iām not crying, I have more than 30 years to know very well what I have to spend my money on, I am exposing a strange situation since it is possible that other players have noticed this, you are going to tell me where spend my money? ahahahaha exactly you?
It is not unusual to get non-featured myths while hatching for the featured one.
Thatās my over 10.000 gems results from this year. My numbers were exact on what the banners are saying so I donāt believe in any conspiracy or rates worse than they claim it to be.
Thatās right, the strange thing is getting twice as many unwanted myths as the featured myth. Thatās what Iām exposing. Sometimes I think youāre 15 years old when you talk about crying. If exposing a strange situation seems like crying to you, you can say the same to everyone. forum users
And I repeat, I would wake up Nightale again, I am over 30 years old and I know how much I can spend, I am aware that this is a gacha game, and anything can happen but when these things happen, you can come to doubt the percentages since the probability Itās practically zero.
As someone with a math degree I have to sadly point out that providing one example does not prove anything regarding the odds or stats.
I just linked my results from a sizeable data collection that proved that the odds are exact as they tell you.
As an expert in behavior analysis, I should have told you that it is disrespectful to tell someone not to give their opinion with expressions like (cry) expressions that are funny when they come from you.
Would be better if you would tell us the exact number of packs opened and how many myth eggs you got. From what I can deduct - if you opened around 90 packs on her and got 12(???) myth eggs in that - this is way above what you would expect statistically.
What I expected statistically, as I explained in the previous messages, is that there would not be at least that much difference between featured mythics and non-featured mythics. Obtaining almost double the number of non-featured mythics seemed strange to me, but I suppose itās a gacha game and anything can happen.
I just saw that I had 100 rare gems thatās 100 packs, 4000 gems in nightale
Like Coltraz said itās all about sample sizes.
as someone without a math degree i have to point out :- NEEEERD!!!
Very helpful . Thank
As a math expert, I say ā ā ā ā statistics.
This is the bit I wanted to read. The hatching results were definitely unusual but luckily the number of mythics was above average. Hopefully it helped Iberian work towards awakening some other mythics. I find itās normal for a lot of results to have a mixture of bad and good luck. For example, getting lucky with mythics/legendaries but not the ones you want (like here) or not getting many but they are the ones you want.
Since other people were claiming to be mathematicians I feel compelled to prove Iām the bigger nerd. Letās assume Iberian has all standard pool awakened so hatching one is a 7* ticket which is equivalent to 1/3 a mythic.
Then his 12 mythics hatched were:
4 * 1 + 8 * 0.33 = 6.67 limited mythics
Expected return from 100 packs would be 10 mythics with 75% featured and 25% standard pool:
7.5 * 1 + 2.5 * 0.33 = 8.33 limited mythics
So taking standard pool mythics hatches as the lowest value possible he got 80% (6.67/8.33) of the expected value. Thatās close enough to average.
If you instead assume half of the standard pool were for a mythic not awakened and he values that as highly as a limited mythic:
4 * 1 + 4 * 1 + 4 * 0.33 = 9.33 mythics (higher than the 8.33)
Point being, while this was an expensive awakening of Nightingale, if you get this many mythics hatched thereās usually a positive way to look at it all
P.S. @Coltraz Please donāt be so quick to ridicule and get into an argument with someone. Their first post was basically just sharing their unusual result of getting lots of standard pool mythics.
I only get angry when people rush to point out some ābugā or āwrong ratesā when in fact their results were either average or above average.
The point is, that sometimes it is better to stick to some hatching strategy and not brute force an egg for 100 packs only to then going on forum and ask why it was so bad when in fact it was not at all.
10 packs = lucky? (1 or more shards) Hatch more!
10 packs = unlucky? (no shard) stop immidietly
The hatching strategy that always worked for me
Yeah. I try to use this one too. (For older featured banners) I hatch 10-15 packs and if I donāt get 1 or 2 copies in that then I am not finishing it and waiting for it to come again.
The most packs I opened on one banner was ShiNa with 57 total packs - I would propably never go over 60 packs on a single mythic after that
I never said that I had bad luck with the hatching, on the contrary the amount of mythics per gems spent seemed acceptable to me, what surprised me is that being a percentage of 75% hatching of the mythical on the banner, twice as many NON-featured mythics hatched as from the mythical banner, it is a fairly small probability for that part, YES, I HAD BAD LUCK @Coltraz @Killerdog
congratulations, how many pack bro ???