I understand but I’m sympathetic at times, not at other times. DonT has complained many times to the Devs and to me, even recently accusing the company of advertising false hatch rates (not the first time for him doing this). Here he called something “not even close to 1%” when it’s actually 22%. I think a big part of the problem is how far his expectations are away from the reality of hatching that he feels like he’s being unlucky far more than he is.
I have more of an idea than you do about hatch rate expectations. Bit harsher than I’d like to be right now but come on man, I’ve offered you my shoulder quite a few times with sympathy and after years of playing the game and hatching I’ve had countless experiences of periods of bad luck. I’ve also spent money in the past on games where I’ve put the currency in RNG things and had a mixture of results.
What’s that about combined chances?
Believe me this is nothing to do with my relationship with the company. In fact, if I’d go even harsher if I wasn’t trying to be more polite and respectable on the forum. I have no respect for BS maths or ideas based on feelings rather than numbers when there’s clear mathematical ways to prove one way or the other.
So what’s effective combined chance to find a mythic? Do you have an idea of how low combined chance is 22%?
Man I think you don’t get the problem…
It says 1% chance ok? So 1 every 100 eggs in average.
If you don’t respect that you are failing ok? And I am referring to good hatches too like 4 mythics in 3 packs.
That’s rare like finding a mythic with 5000 gems.
Now my expectation is that a mythic comes between egg 6 and 14 in average. If I go over 14 so many times for me that’s not 1% anymore.
I tried to awaken Plumelisk lately. 900 gems no mythic.
I tried Kuromasa 900 gems no mythic.
I tried Kuromasa in another banner 900 eggs no mythic.
Now Momo 1520 - 1 Momo
In the past Scyberithe on festival 1200 eggs - No mythic.
Again Scyberithe 1920 eggs - 1 Suikenshi (I was so frustrated that I bought three shards in tickets)
Lemon hatched in 2 banners - Over 3000 gems.
And I can go on and on and on and on.
Only because I don’t video all my hatches that doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. Is very annoying how you defend something that IN MY ACCOUNT is not happening.
I can’t be always unlucky.
Unlucky is 1… 2… 3… 4th time is not bad luck anymore.
0.99^140 = 0.24487. Roughly 25% of the time you will not hatch any mythic (1%) in 14 packs. So you’re saying 1 in 4 times you hatch you will claim that the hatch rate is displayed incorrectly?
The 22% I was talking about was the calculation 0.9925^380 [the chance for 0 Momo in 38 packs] + 380 * 0.9925^379 * 0.0075 [chance of exactly 1 Momo in 38 packs] = 5.7226% + 16.4327% = 22.1554%. I don’t know what you might be doing to get 0.26%.
I went to meet up with some friends today and drafted magic. The deck I created was 40 cards with 17 lands (things you need to play the other cards) and 23 nonlands (the cards you actually play). My lands were split 9 and 8 between two different colours (you need the right colour to play the respective card). In 8 of the 10 games I played I went through 15-20 cards in my deck and was left with either 3-4 lands of a single colour or drew ONLY lands for 4-6 turns in a row… both cases resulting in my deck not functioning at all.
Now I know that’s far too complicated to go figuring out what the chance of that is but I will tell you… it’s freaking unlucky! Bad luck happens. We always want to expect results close to the average but in reality we do get extreme things sometimes. Also, I reckon you’re thinking of the average more like the 95th percentile.
I think the imbalance is that the novice egg pool that lasts a month for novice players has a ten pack guarantee.but the old players never get some compensation during these updates.
It’s a promotion to help get new players into the game and encourage them to get spending for things. Why do older players need compensation for that?
As for guarantees… surely a pity timer is the thing that’s fair? Just something that limits how bad someone’s luck can go. For example, if you haven’t got a mythic by the 20th pack then you get one guaranteed. And yes it would need to be 20th pack because that’s still helping people in 13.4% of cases.
Imagine an extreme situation. A novice spent player playing for a month missed this event because of this update. Shouldn’t he complain?The updates of many new game players will also benefit the old players. This is fairness.
From the point of view of probability and money.novice players only need to pay half to get what they want and choose multiple times. The old players are always waiting and probabilistically endless next pack
You’re drastically oversimplifying it, as you basically state here.
Using your maths you could say “I got no mythic hatches in 6 packs, therefore the chance of hatching a mythic is 0%. The hatch rates are false!”.
What you need to do is look at what the chance of achieving the results you did, given the displayed drop rates. Instead you’re calculating “let’s assume my result is the average, what drop rate does this suggest”. Without high numbers your answer is going to be all over the place.
As for the second post… you’re basically calculating a range either side of the average to pick a window where you’re expecting the mythic hatch to happen within. You’re picking numbers of out thin air so it’s not perfectly even either side of the average and making a range like this doesn’t work well because you’re just as likely to hatch a mythic in the first 7 packs as you are in the packs 8-14. I’m not entirely sure what you’re trying to get at here. Are you simply saying the 7-14 packs is the average you expect for a mythic hatch? I’m also a bit confused in general because earlier we were talking about the 0.75% of a featured mythic hatch and now you’re talking about 1% of any mythic hatch.
If you want simple maths then here we go.
The average packs for a featured mythic is 13.33.
The chance of hatching it 1+ times in X packs is as follows:
1 = 7.2519%
2 = 13.9778%
3 = 20.2161%
4 = 26.0019%
5 = 31.3681%
6 = 36.3452%
7 = 40.9614%
8 = 45.2428%
9 = 49.2137%
10 = 52.8967%
11 = 56.3125%
12 = 59.4807%
13 = 62.4191%
14 = 65.1444%
15 = 67.6721%
16 = 70.0165%
17 = 72.1909%
18 = 74.2075%
19 = 76.0780%
20 = 77.8128%
21 = 79.4218%
22 = 80.9141%
23 = 82.2982%
24 = 83.5819%
25 = 84.7725%
26 = 85.8768%
27 = 86.9010%
28 = 87.8509%
29 = 88.7319%
30 = 89.5491%
I’ll stop there. So the important thing here is that while we expect the average of 13.33 packs, you can see we have only just about hit 90% chance by the 30th pack. So 10% of the time you will need to open more than 30 packs before you get a single featured mythic. In our heads we probably think of the 90th percentile at 20-25 packs and that we MUST have it by that point, otherwise the hatch rates are lower than shown. However, it does statistically happen.
I understand the element of frustration, the dimension of money spent on the gems and how our brain isn’t good at properly figuring out percentiles. However, some of the complaints here are not coming from the frustration of bad hatches. They’re accusing the maths of being wrong because they’re not accepting the reality of what some results can be, instead wanting them to conform to other conceptions of what the range of drop rates is like.
I think the Devs have quite explicitly said they won’t do either a guaranteed thing or a pity timer. I really wish they would add a pity timer to help people stop being too unlucky. It’s really disrespectful to big spenders who can potentially waste a lot of money
What is the guarantee? They guaranteed more access to the potion before .did they do it? Or they promised that Qixing would not be too broken before. did they do it?
