I’m curious how did u arrive at this equation…
Cos that’s a decay equation and I haven’t seen it being used in probability
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Lol I think you did something wrong
Since there’s a 1% chance of getting a mythic, DonT should get a mythic every hundred eggs on average. But DonT needs to understand that just because he got below the average amount of mythics, it doesn’t mean anything is rigged or broken it just means that he got unlucky.
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Here’s the leap where you went wrong… working out the 99th percentile for something being basically guaranteed then calling that the average. The average is not even the 50th percentile, that’s the median.
Average is much simpler to work out… it’s 1/0.01 = 100 eggs. Specifically for the featured is 1/0.0075 = 133.3 eggs.
DonT did a total of 38 packs I think (from what I hear). He got the featured mythic twice. With 38 packs the chance of getting it each number of times is the following:
0 Uraniumedhus = 5.7%
1 Uraniumedhus = 16.4%
2 Uraniumedhus = 23.5%
3 Uraniumedhus = 22.4%
4 Uraniumedhus = 16.0%
5 Uraniumedhus = 9.1%
6+ Uraniumedhus = 6.9%
The chance of getting below 3 (as he did) was roughly 45.6%. So in the grand scheme of things he didn’t get that unlucky at all. I’m surprised, after he’s done hatching for every mythic, he doesn’t have a better judgement of what is and isn’t unlucky. Maybe it’s more the other people watching who are being a voice on him “being unlucky”.
The average Uraniumedhus you will get from 38 packs is 2.85, so many would expect to get 3. You can see from the above numbers that you’re more likely to get 3+ than 0-2 but not by much. That average is mainly inflated by the chance of getting far more than three.
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I was actually calculating the attempts for a guaranteed then got mixed up but really 458 eggs for a guaranteed mythic 
.
Lets calculate it in money wise.
458*4= 1832 gems
1832/150=12.21
12.21*80$= $977 for a guaranteed mythic chance.
Wow soooooo cheap.I can even buy a PS4 with some good games with that money
PS5 now 
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Oh I forgot.But did the price for it appear
I hardly doubt it will cost more then a neo mythic.
I guess so maybe the most would be 700$
700$ is two mythic copies man make a wise choose ps5 or two mythic copies
And you still need two more to awaken.
Ps5 with horizon zero 2
Tough choose brother,
Two copies of a mythic that will get power creeped by next year or ps5 
Wow so tough the mythic could be gamechanger. But ps5 I choose you
When you look at 99th percentile of course it’s going to be ridiculous. The average for a featured mythic is $284, less than a third of that number. However, of course that’s still an enormous number considering you have to get 4 copies but it’s the world of fremium mobile games we live in.
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They could just say $284 for a chance and $977 guaranteed
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In any case is ridiculous.
They should really rework this.
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I am not a mathematician but to me 1% means you find 1 every 100 eggs.
If I do find 1 every 100 eggs once in a while that’s not 1%.
1% it means having balanced opportunities to find it before 100 hatches and after 100 hatches.
For example if I hatch 1000 eggs I should get an average of 10 not less than 8 not more than 12 if you put in the middle luck and unluck.
That’s selling a 1% change product. Not what is happening to me.
They don’t realize that people will not buy because they watch my livestream and get disgusted about it.
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This seems to me like it’s similar to when tnc mementomori said that malwing was broken because he counted ten times when it entered and it kept sleeping his stun converter. Killerdog calculated the odds for how likely it was for you to get x number of featured mythics and what you got wasn’t even that unlucky.
KD calculated the odds only over 100 eggs.
A 1% chance egg is possible to be found on hatch 2 or on hatch 85 or on hatch 70, 64, 80. But is possible to find it on hatch 110, 145, 170. If you reach 200 eggs with no mythic there is something wrong with odds.
What I am saying is that the pre 100 eggs hatches and the post 100 eggs hatches get balanced with a huge amount of eggs open.
And @NMEduck about malwing is the same thing. If you run mal against 2/4 chrono. Over 1000 runs will sleep the Chrono 45-55% of the time, which is fair.
Killerdog calculated the odds over 38 packs. He used the odds of getting a featured mythic, not just any mythic so they might not represent what you are trying to say but they are still correct.
The sample size you are using to test if the 1% chance for a mythic is accurate is too small so it will not work. If you were to keep track of how many mythics you got for several thousand eggs than you would have a better size.
When I was talking about what tnc mementomori said about malwing, he said that tranquilizing entrance was bugged to go after stun converters because when he had one stun converter on the field, seven out of ten times it hit the stun converter. I used this example because it shows that if you use too few trials, you can get results that don’t disprove anything.