Fortune Shrine - share your best and worst luck!

[Exu]

The shrine is weighted towards 600.

[Mr.X]

725

[Rctuga]

I just jumped from 537 gems to 920
Bring me nikki

[DMGInterference]

we can’t know the odds because we don’t know the distribution function of the gems. It could be a lower-bounded gaussian centered below 700, a negative exponential, a gamma…

Like @Exu implied, we can pretty confidently say its not an uniform distribution though lmao

[EMI_Eklypz]

[Killerdog]

@comoko

I wonder what are the odds of staying below 700 almost 10 times in a row, @Killerdog should enlighten me lol. I’ve never seen anyone get over 800-900 gems in a row.

I’ve got 155 recorded results. 104 are below 700, making it 67.1% chance. If we take that as a binomial (since we’re just looking at the two cases of <700 and 700+) then the chance of 10 times in a row = 1.85%. Personally I’d assume the first result is already below 700 to get a better idea of the likelihood, since it’s not a streak at that point and it’s going to be happening basically every other shrine. That makes the chance 2.75%.

Getting 800+ happened 30 of the 155 times, 19.35% chance. Getting this twice in a row is 3.75% chance for any two independent shrines. In my records I saw it happening 6 times, with one of those being 3x 800+ gems in a row. Given the 3.75% chance that lines up nicely, as well as the three in a row matching the 0.725% chance of that happening.

[DMGInterference]

uhm if you have the results in a nice tabular format, could you please share them

[Killerdog]

It’s a google sheet and includes results from people who may not want them shared. I’ll see if there’s an easy way I can put them into a table for you this weekend

[EMI_Eklypz]

i had 4 in a row over 800.

@Killerdog what are the odds? c:

(i then basically got 600-650 for the next 8 or so lol.)

[Killerdog]

Rows are: count, full shrine average, total gems gained. Note: count is only shrines up to 500 and biased results are ignored from both count and averages

	Average	Total	07/01/2021	31/07/2021	13/08/2021	31/08/2021	16/09/2021	30/09/2021	15/10/2021	31/10/2021	15/11/2021	30/11/2021	31/12/2021	17/01/2022	31/01/2022	15/02/2022	28/02/2022	20/03/2022	11/04/2022	30/04/2022	20/05/2022	11/06/2022	30/06/2022	25/07/2022	17/08/2022	05/09/2022	26/09/2022	17/10/2022	07/11/2022	28/11/2022	19/12/2022	06/01/2023	10/02/2023	09/03/2023	24/03/2023	17/04/2023	04/05/2023	05/06/2023	23/06/2023	14/07/2023	03/08/2023	18/08/2023	15/09/2023	04/10/2023	01/11/2023	15/11/2023	01/12/2023	15/12/2023	01/01/2024	22/01/2024	01/03/2024
Everyone
5	3.79	155
50	28.63	227.15
500	194.72	36,257
Killerdog
5	3.88	48	15	9	10	9	10	9	9	8	10	9	9	9	8	9	9	7	9	10	9	9	8	9	7	9	10	10	10	9	8	8	9	9	7	9	8	8	10	10	7	9	9	10	8	10	7	9	10	9	9
50	29.60	197.79	145	99	82	89	89	74	83	65	62	78	87	79	82	65	74	69	100	65	97	78	63	83	90	99	74	74	62	73	69	91	91	85	97	100	80	79	90	85	62	77	92	82	80	64	77	65	84	69	67
500	164.31	10,013	1690	614	646	675	779	668	697	628	694	604	664	623	654	607	608	617	614	603	647	628	689	787	628	616	824	664	728	602	615	619	647	642	611	700	766	690	614	621	605	605	604	616	669	666	713	745	831	829	671
Player 2
5	4.00	48		10	9	9	10	6	10	10	10	9	10	10	9	9	8	9	10	8	9	9	8	9	8	8	8	9	9	10	8	9	8	9	9	9	9	8	10	10	8	9	10	9	9	10	8	9	10	9	9
50	29.94	242.60		83	99	85	61	84	87	80	60	97	74	65	81	76	86	96	72	89	70	71	61	61	82	82	81	69	86	96	75	69	69	60	66	93	95	97	65	73	83	89	85	94	86	99	88	92	65	69	91
500	208.67	11,645		735	616	654	782	803	852	801	671	724	698	872	947	612	620	653	607	832	609	925	615	885	603	604	828	775	713	714	686	645	626	608	607	620	636	626	823	854	673	640	690	606	626	630	609	742	987	670	662
Player 3
5	3.43	14																											9	7	8	8	10	8	8	10	8	10	7	9	8	8
50	26.86	242.50																											78	78	75	90	61	88	91	88	63	63	97	65	74	65
500	212.21	3,395																											746	621	849	821	647	651	620	821	626	792	615	849	672	641
Player 4
5	3.80	15																											9	9	7	9	9	7	9	9	10	10	8	9	9	10	8
50	22.67	216.67																											65	82	60	91	83	60	85	89	63	62	61	83	69	64	73
500	190.20	3,250																											646	823	603	789	878	663	614	612	613	631	753	610	646	610	862
Player 5
5	2.90	10																											7	9	10	7	8	8	7	8		6	9
50	31.00	250.60																											62	73	73	69	98	91	100	78		89	77
500	216.70	2,506																											608	652	910	801	603	605	924	689		663	712
Player 6
5	3.78	8																															10	9	9		10	9	8	8	9	7
50	21.11	212.76																															68	74	65		92	77	63	63	70	68
500	187.88	1,727																															628	655	776		750	609	677	755		653
Player 7
5	4.00	6																																9	10	7	9	9	9	9	10	9
50	31.75	268.25																																95	93	76	94	91	68	95	72	65
500	232.50	2,115																																885	616	621	635			651	940	932
Player 8
5	3.50	6																																			7	10	9	9	8	8
50	32.50	267.67																																			77	78	87	97	70	86
500	231.67	1,606																																			679	999	650	638	823	601

[Killerdog]

@DMGInterference Does the above post work for you?

I don’t have percentages on the different ranges there, but can add that if necessary (just tell me what you want and I can produce it in the sheet then paste into the post here)

[DMGInterference]

Thanks a bunch!!! This is perfect

[NMEduck]

yay

[Tavaray]

I need 40 more gems to do shrine, idk if i will make it before it ends

[zicco]

10/100/746

A good haul for the shrine. I believe I got in the 600’s for the last 4 times

As some of you might have noticed, I have been very infrquent over the last coupls of months, mainly due to academic pressure. My final examinations have just concluded so I hope I can play more!

[Unholy_Prem]

Gd luck for hatching

[Tavaray]

10, 80

as long as its not in the 600s im fine with it

[recakun]

10, 93, 919

[Rctuga]

10,91,638

[comoko]

10, 70, 662.

Seems like everyone started off well with 10 gems but it always ends up at 600s for me lol