# What did you get from your Eggs? (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Neo Monsters General Discussions\ **Created:** [August 17, 2016, 1:03pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878 "2016-08-17T13:03:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 404
**Author:** ![DonT89](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac8455/32.png) [@DonT89](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/DonT89)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2021, 11:47pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8227 "2021-07-10T23:47:01Z")
So what’s effective combined chance to find a mythic? Do you have an idea of how low combined chance is 22%? Man I think you don’t get the problem… It says 1% chance ok? So 1 every 100 eggs in average. If you don’t respect that you are failing ok? And I am referring to good hatches too like 4 mythics in 3 packs. That’s rare like finding a mythic with 5000 gems. Now my expectation is that a mythic comes between egg 6 and 14 in average. If I go over 14 so many times for me that’s not 1% anymore. I tried to awaken Plumelisk lately. 900 gems no mythic. I tried Kuromasa 900 gems no mythic. I tried Kuromasa in another banner 900 eggs no mythic. Now Momo 1520 - 1 Momo In the past Scyberithe on festival 1200 eggs - No mythic. Again Scyberithe 1920 eggs - 1 Suikenshi (I was so frustrated that I bought three shards in tickets) Lemon hatched in 2 banners - Over 3000 gems. And I can go on and on and on and on. Only because I don’t video all my hatches that doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. Is very annoying how you defend something that IN MY ACCOUNT is not happening. I can’t be always unlucky. Unlucky is 1… 2… 3… 4th time is not bad luck anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Laxus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/laxus/32/44000_2.png) [@Laxus](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Laxus)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 12:01am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8228 "2021-07-11T00:01:25Z")
I think we should make the guarantee of every ten packs come back. or every 15 or 20 packs. I also experienced something similar 3 time. ---
**Author:** ![Killerdog](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/killerdog/32/19206_2.png) [@Killerdog](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Killerdog)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 12:05am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8229 "2021-07-11T00:05:58Z")
> [@DonT89](#): > > Now my expectation is that a mythic comes between egg 6 and 14 in average. If I go over 14 so many times for me that’s not 1% anymore. 0.99^140 = 0.24487. Roughly 25% of the time you will not hatch any mythic (1%) in 14 packs. So you’re saying 1 in 4 times you hatch you will claim that the hatch rate is displayed incorrectly? The 22% I was talking about was the calculation 0.9925^380 [the chance for 0 Momo in 38 packs] + 380 \* 0.9925^379 \* 0.0075 [chance of exactly 1 Momo in 38 packs] = 5.7226% + 16.4327% = 22.1554%. I don’t know what you might be doing to get 0.26%. I went to meet up with some friends today and drafted magic. The deck I created was 40 cards with 17 lands (things you need to play the other cards) and 23 nonlands (the cards you actually play). My lands were split 9 and 8 between two different colours (you need the right colour to play the respective card). In 8 of the 10 games I played I went through 15-20 cards in my deck and was left with either 3-4 lands of a single colour or drew ONLY lands for 4-6 turns in a row… both cases resulting in my deck not functioning at all. Now I know that’s far too complicated to go figuring out what the chance of that is but I will tell you… it’s freaking unlucky! Bad luck happens. We always want to expect results close to the average but in reality we do get extreme things sometimes. Also, I reckon you’re thinking of the average more like the 95th percentile. ---
**Author:** ![Laxus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/laxus/32/44000_2.png) [@Laxus](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Laxus)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 12:06am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8230 "2021-07-11T00:06:22Z")
I think the imbalance is that the novice egg pool that lasts a month for novice players has a ten pack guarantee.but the old players never get some compensation during these updates. ---
**Author:** ![Killerdog](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/killerdog/32/19206_2.png) [@Killerdog](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Killerdog)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 12:12am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8231 "2021-07-11T00:12:12Z")
It’s a promotion to help get new players into the game and encourage them to get spending for things. Why do older players need compensation for that? As for guarantees… surely a pity timer is the thing that’s fair? Just something that limits how bad someone’s luck can go. For example, if you haven’t got a mythic by the 20th pack then you get one guaranteed. And yes it would need to be 20th pack because that’s still helping people in 13.4% of cases. ---
**Author:** ![Laxus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/laxus/32/44000_2.png) [@Laxus](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Laxus)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 12:25am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8232 "2021-07-11T00:25:19Z")
Imagine an extreme situation. A novice spent player playing for a month missed this event because of this update. Shouldn’t he complain?The updates of many new game players will also benefit the old players. This is fairness. ---
**Author:** ![Laxus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/laxus/32/44000_2.png) [@Laxus](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Laxus)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 12:28am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8233 "2021-07-11T00:28:35Z")
From the point of view of probability and money.novice players only need to pay half to get what they want and choose multiple times. The old players are always waiting and probabilistically endless next pack ---
**Author:** ![DonT89](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac8455/32.png) [@DonT89](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/DonT89)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 12:30am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8234 "2021-07-11T00:30:38Z")
1:380=x:100 1x100:380= 0.263157895 Percentage of finding a mythic in 380 eggs. Simple elementary school math 😂 ---
**Author:** ![DonT89](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac8455/32.png) [@DonT89](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/DonT89)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 12:42am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8235 "2021-07-11T00:42:10Z")
If you move it up and down a bit will be: 1:140=x:100 1x100:140=0.71 And: 1:75=x:100 1x100:75=1.33 So: Guaranteed mythic percentage 0.71-1.33% Fair. ---
**Author:** ![DonT89](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac8455/32.png) [@DonT89](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/DonT89)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 12:42am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8236 "2021-07-11T00:42:41Z")
You gain money, we gain mythic 🤷‍♂️ ---
**Author:** ![NMEduck](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/nmeduck/32/32018_2.png) [@NMEduck](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/NMEduck)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:09am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8238 "2021-07-11T01:09:11Z")
> [@DonT89](#): > > 1:380=x:100 > > 1x100:380= 0.263157895 > > Percentage of finding a mythic in 380 eggs. > > Simple elementary school math 😂 ![](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/uploads/neomonstersforum/original/3X/1/f/1f0821dc93275b9d9713bb6548ac77f84d2a2a4a.gif) ---
**Author:** ![DonT89](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac8455/32.png) [@DonT89](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/DonT89)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:11am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8239 "2021-07-11T01:11:09Z")
If 1% is 1 every 100 eggs, 1 every 200 is 0.5%, 1 every 400 is 0.25%. So definitely 1 every 380 is 0.26% ---
**Author:** ![NMEduck](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/nmeduck/32/32018_2.png) [@NMEduck](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/NMEduck)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:13am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8240 "2021-07-11T01:13:11Z")
> [@DonT89](#): > > If 1% is 1 every 100 eggs, 1 every 200 is 0.5%, 1 every 400 is 0.25%. So definitely 1 every 380 is 0.26% ![](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/uploads/neomonstersforum/original/3X/f/6/f6f6e1d450e01f0b6fcea5aad51a86dde1b639f6.gif) ---
**Author:** ![DonT89](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac8455/32.png) [@DonT89](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/DonT89)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:15am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8241 "2021-07-11T01:15:40Z")
No need that’s primary school math and stop acting dumb. If you don’t want to add anything constructive to the conversation you are not welcome. ---
**Author:** ![Killerdog](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/killerdog/32/19206_2.png) [@Killerdog](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Killerdog)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:18am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8242 "2021-07-11T01:18:20Z")
> [@DonT89](#): > > Simple elementary school math 😂 You’re drastically oversimplifying it, as you basically state here. Using your maths you could say “I got no mythic hatches in 6 packs, therefore the chance of hatching a mythic is 0%. The hatch rates are false!”. What you need to do is look at what the chance of achieving the results you did, given the displayed drop rates. Instead you’re calculating “let’s assume my result is the average, what drop rate does this suggest”. Without high numbers your answer is going to be all over the place. As for the second post… you’re basically calculating a range either side of the average to pick a window where you’re expecting the mythic hatch to happen within. You’re picking numbers of out thin air so it’s not perfectly even either side of the average and making a range like this doesn’t work well because you’re just as likely to hatch a mythic in the first 7 packs as you are in the packs 8-14. I’m not entirely sure what you’re trying to get at here. Are you simply saying the 7-14 packs is the average you expect for a mythic hatch? I’m also a bit confused in general because earlier we were talking about the 0.75% of a featured mythic hatch and now you’re talking about 1% of any mythic hatch. If you want simple maths then here we go. The average packs for a featured mythic is 13.33. The chance of hatching it 1+ times in X packs is as follows: 1 = 7.2519% 2 = 13.9778% 3 = 20.2161% 4 = 26.0019% 5 = 31.3681% 6 = 36.3452% 7 = 40.9614% 8 = 45.2428% 9 = 49.2137% 10 = 52.8967% 11 = 56.3125% 12 = 59.4807% 13 = 62.4191% 14 = 65.1444% 15 = 67.6721% 16 = 70.0165% 17 = 72.1909% 18 = 74.2075% 19 = 76.0780% 20 = 77.8128% 21 = 79.4218% 22 = 80.9141% 23 = 82.2982% 24 = 83.5819% 25 = 84.7725% 26 = 85.8768% 27 = 86.9010% 28 = 87.8509% 29 = 88.7319% 30 = 89.5491% I’ll stop there. So the important thing here is that while we expect the average of 13.33 packs, you can see we have only just about hit 90% chance by the 30th pack. So 10% of the time you will need to open more than 30 packs before you get a single featured mythic. In our heads we probably think of the 90th percentile at 20-25 packs and that we MUST have it by that point, otherwise the hatch rates are lower than shown. However, it does statistically happen. I understand the element of frustration, the dimension of money spent on the gems and how our brain isn’t good at properly figuring out percentiles. However, some of the complaints here are not coming from the frustration of bad hatches. They’re accusing the maths of being wrong because they’re not accepting the reality of what some results can be, instead wanting them to conform to other conceptions of what the range of drop rates is like. ---
**Author:** ![Laxus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/laxus/32/44000_2.png) [@Laxus](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Laxus)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:22am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8243 "2021-07-11T01:22:42Z")
So back to my point of view, many games have a guarantee mechanism.which is floating probability. I think this is a good idea ---
**Author:** ![Laxus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/laxus/32/44000_2.png) [@Laxus](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Laxus)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:23am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8244 "2021-07-11T01:23:46Z")
Probability is always illusory.but we can do something ---
**Author:** ![Killerdog](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/killerdog/32/19206_2.png) [@Killerdog](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Killerdog)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:24am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8245 "2021-07-11T01:24:23Z")
I think the Devs have quite explicitly said they won’t do either a guaranteed thing or a pity timer. I really wish they would add a pity timer to help people stop being too unlucky. It’s really disrespectful to big spenders who can potentially waste a lot of money ---
**Author:** ![Laxus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/laxus/32/44000_2.png) [@Laxus](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Laxus)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:26am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8246 "2021-07-11T01:26:59Z")
What is the guarantee? They guaranteed more access to the potion before .did they do it? Or they promised that Qixing would not be too broken before. did they do it? ---
**Author:** ![DonT89](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac8455/32.png) [@DonT89](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/DonT89)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2021, 1:29am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878/8247 "2021-07-11T01:29:14Z")
So you are just telling me that I need to accept every unlucky hatch without questioning if actually something wrong? So you are saying trust the math, the rest is a matter of luck. Good. I approve that. But why always me? You are in the belief that exist good faith in all this but I am not in the same belief. So why making an acceptable hatching window? For preventing hatches being excessively maneuverated, grant a clear interval of chances, making spending reliable. You won’t find a mythic in first 6 packs, sounds very fair to me but you have a clear interval on when that would happen. With open chances is too easy do things in the shadow. The cost of an awoken mythic will be between 1200 and 2240 gems. Guaranteed. [Previous page](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878.md?page=403) [Next page](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/what-did-you-get-from-your-eggs-part-1/4878.md?page=405)