# Just curious on probabilities of Class chances? **URL:** \ **Category:** Hunter Island General Discussion\ **Created:** [December 10, 2013, 8:19am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032 "2013-12-10T08:19:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![aznpride](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a183cd/32.png) [@aznpride](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/aznpride)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 8:19am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/1 "2013-12-10T08:19:23Z")
as the title states just wondering the chances of finding an Ark with S class A class etc… Been farming for frostjacks and ive found plenty… execpt they are all E… as;lkdfja;lsdjf;la ---
**Author:** ![Deadpool](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/deadpool/32/19_2.png) [@Deadpool](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Deadpool)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 8:40am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/2 "2013-12-10T08:40:11Z")
To be honest, I’m not sure I imagine there’s numbers in there somewhere but the betas never really asked that question… ---
**Author:** ![Ashley](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/ashley/32/60_2.png) [@Ashley](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Ashley)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 8:46am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/3 "2013-12-10T08:46:36Z")
We could probably come up with a pretty close estimate. Give me a moment…  ---
**Author:** ![DaveNg88](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/daveng88/32/633_2.png) [@DaveNg88](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/DaveNg88)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 9:03am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/4 "2013-12-10T09:03:40Z")
If it helps, I did a trial run of 100 battles at the Biteschool spot and came up with these probabilities: - S = 0.6% - A = 4.4% - B = 6.8% - C = 18.6% - D = 31.8% - E = 37.8% ---
**Author:** ![Ashley](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/ashley/32/60_2.png) [@Ashley](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Ashley)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 9:30am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/5 "2013-12-10T09:30:40Z")
When I did a similar test, I found these numbers: S = 1.1% A = 3.3% B = 5.5% C = 16.9%  D = 30.0% E = 42.8%  They’re pretty close to the results Dave found above, though a little off.  I’d wager S is around 1%…  ---
**Author:** ![Jeannette](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/jeannette/32/418_2.png) [@Jeannette](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Jeannette)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 10:15am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/6 "2013-12-10T10:15:15Z")
Its different with rare arkadions tough… ---
**Author:** ![Ashley](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/ashley/32/60_2.png) [@Ashley](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Ashley)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 10:32am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/7 "2013-12-10T10:32:04Z")
And you know this how? ---
**Author:** ![The\_legendary\_arkwin](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/the_legendary_arkwin/32/1151_2.png) [@The\_legendary\_arkwin](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/The_legendary_arkwin)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 11:54am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/8 "2013-12-10T11:54:45Z")
> [@Jeannette](#): > > Its different with rare arkadions tough… Don’t think so…got a s class galey lol Must have been super lucky though^^ ---
**Author:** ![Jeannette](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/jeannette/32/418_2.png) [@Jeannette](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Jeannette)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 12:20pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/9 "2013-12-10T12:20:33Z")
I only get E till C ranks with rares ---
**Author:** ![Zyphlan](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/zyphlan/32/859_2.png) [@Zyphlan](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Zyphlan)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 12:21pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/10 "2013-12-10T12:21:54Z")
> [@Jeannette](#): > > Its different with rare arkadions tough… Not necessarily. To get a rare S grade Ark you actually need two events to happen at the same time So you’re actually “rolling a dice” to get the rare arc to spawn and then “rolling it” again to see what grade the spawned arc will be. So I believe you’d have to multiply the two probabilities to find the probability of getting the rare one to spawn and at the same time for it to be the desired grade. But numbers would just ma it discouraging to farm 😛 And that being said that’s why it seems to be only C grade for you because seing anything above C grade has a very low probability ---
**Author:** ![Jeannette](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/jeannette/32/418_2.png) [@Jeannette](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Jeannette)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 2:01pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/11 "2013-12-10T14:01:50Z")
That could be the case haha, that means I have bad luck ---
**Author:** ![Yonfire](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/yonfire/32/413_2.png) [@Yonfire](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Yonfire)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 2:59pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/12 "2013-12-10T14:59:40Z")
> [@Zyphlan](#): > > Not necessarily. > > To get a rare S grade Ark you actually need two events to happen at the same time > > So you’re actually “rolling a dice” to get the rare arc to spawn and then “rolling it” again to see what grade the spawned arc will be. > > So I believe you’d have to multiply the two probabilities to find the probability of getting the rare one to spawn and at the same time for it to be the desired grade. > > But numbers would just ma it discouraging to farm 😛 > > And that being said that’s why it seems to be only C grade for you because seing anything above C grade has a very low probability I love posts like these =D Essentially if youhave a 1/200 chance of finding a rare and a 1% chance it will be S class your odds should be about .005%. Thats just doing straight math, but realistically your chances are much… MUCH lower, sadly. edit: and while numbers are scary to look at, remember that Luck players A huge part in probability in drop chances in game. I find it easier to take the number when i tell myself it’s all luck, because essentially it really is. Getting the ARK is the hard part… grade boosting is easier than farming(although limited) but the devs are showing their willingness to throw them out for events, we’ll see how many more we get. SECOND EDIT: major math issue… too early… ---
**Author:** ![Trotticus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/trotticus/32/1321_2.png) [@Trotticus](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Trotticus)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 3:37pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/13 "2013-12-10T15:37:53Z")
I just looked through my hatchlings. This is what I’ve gotten.  6 E 2 D 1 C 3 B 1 A I imagine if you took the time to perform a chi-square goodness-of-fit test, you’d find that these observations are within the realm of the expected observations (assuming rares obey the same percentages). Probably.  ---
**Author:** ![Outoftime89](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/outoftime89/32/208_2.png) [@Outoftime89](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Outoftime89)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 5:19pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/14 "2013-12-10T17:19:53Z")
i have found 15 hatchlings, caught 14 and one broke free, out of those i have found these S: 0 A: 0 B: 0 C:4 D: 1 (and the one i missed was a D so 2) E: 9… ---
**Author:** ![Slighter](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/slighter/32/37_2.png) [@Slighter](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Slighter)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 6:26pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/15 "2013-12-10T18:26:35Z")
the bite schools are a better measurement here. I doubt the developers coded differing class probabilities in per Ark, its likely static, so if you did a 1000 pool plot you would probably have pretty accurate numbers.  ---
**Author:** ![Gfish](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/gfish/32/1674_2.png) [@Gfish](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Gfish)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 6:40pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/16 "2013-12-10T18:40:37Z")
Out of a total of 243 arks (biteschools), I got these numbers: S: 3 (1,2%) A: 17 (7,0%) B: 21 (8,6%) C: 44 (18,1%) D: 73 (30,0%) E. 85 (35,0%) We could also add up all results of everyones runs together to make a larger sample group. ---
**Author:** ![Zyphlan](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/zyphlan/32/859_2.png) [@Zyphlan](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Zyphlan)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 8:42pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/17 "2013-12-10T20:42:25Z")
Anyways we can assume that S grade probability converge to 1% 🙂 That means… Back to farming it is 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Ashley](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/ashley/32/60_2.png) [@Ashley](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Ashley)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 9:31pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/18 "2013-12-10T21:31:48Z")
If you’re interested, my data was based on 506 biteschools.  ---
**Author:** ![Yonfire](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/yonfire/32/413_2.png) [@Yonfire](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Yonfire)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 9:40pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/19 "2013-12-10T21:40:35Z")
> [@Zyphlan](#): > > Anyways we can assume that S grade probability converge to 1% 🙂 > > That means… Back to farming it is 😛 I’d agree with 1% chance to find an S, but keep mind that 1% gets tested against the spawn % of the given ARK you are hunting. 1% of a fraction of a percent is pretty low. ---
**Author:** ![Zyphlan](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/www.neomonstersforum.com/zyphlan/32/859_2.png) [@Zyphlan](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Zyphlan)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2013, 9:51pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032/20 "2013-12-10T21:51:18Z")
> [@Yonfire](#): > > I’d agree with 1% chance to find an S, but keep mind that 1% gets tested against the spawn % of the given ARK you are hunting. > > 1% of a fraction of a percent is pretty low. Yes for sure but we were talking about the probability for an arc to be S grade once it spawned  But of course the probability of the arc you want in particular being S is much lower. Nonetheless I don’t want to calculate it for the rare ones or I might stop farming :p  [Next page](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/just-curious-on-probabilities-of-class-chances/1032.md?page=2)