# About christmass and new year festivals!!!
**URL:** https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678
**Category:** Neo Monsters
**Created:** [December 24, 2018, 1:55pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678 "2018-12-24T13:55:06Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@SedDeSangre](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/SedDeSangre)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 1:55pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/1 "2018-12-24T13:55:06Z")
I have 150 gems, what should I do?
Spend them in this festival or wait until new year festival?
Thanks for your advices.
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### Author:  [@Mr.X](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Mr.X)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 1:59pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/2 "2018-12-24T13:59:46Z")
I think this is the third time someone makes this topic,
If you want to spend then spend. Recommended keep your gems for a better festival for a better chance and better monsters.
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### Author:  [@SedDeSangre](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/SedDeSangre)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 2:00pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/3 "2018-12-24T14:00:25Z")
Sorry and thanks.
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### Author:  [@Saitama](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Saitama)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 8:56pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/4 "2018-12-24T20:56:46Z")
Yeah don’t spend them. This Christmas egg is horrible. Especially if you only got 150 gems. Wait for guaranteed legends. If they don’t come don’t spend until you got 900 gems. I doubt guaranteed mythics will be a thing anytime soon. Unless sales have gone down bigtime
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### Author:  [@SedDeSangre](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/SedDeSangre)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 8:57pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/5 "2018-12-24T20:57:53Z")
900? in my dreams, hahaha
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### Author:  [@Saitama](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Saitama)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 8:58pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/6 "2018-12-24T20:58:58Z")
Just save for a year. You can do it 👍
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### Author:  [@SedDeSangre](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/SedDeSangre)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 8:59pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/7 "2018-12-24T20:59:38Z")
its really hard and sad
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### Author:  [@Saitama](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Saitama)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 9:01pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/8 "2018-12-24T21:01:07Z")
Yes it is 😭 but it’s strangely fun at the same time. View it as a challenge. See how far you can go as F2P.
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### Author:  [@SedDeSangre](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/SedDeSangre)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 9:02pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/9 "2018-12-24T21:02:05Z")
Im totally F2P bro, cause I live in Cuba, so I have not acess to APP Store.
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### Author:  [@Zardecil](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Zardecil)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 9:18pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/10 "2018-12-24T21:18:03Z")
30 eggs is 90% chance of something good. 50 is 97% chance.
The egg is fine. Nearly guaranteed.
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### Author:  [@Saitama](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Saitama)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 9:23pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/11 "2018-12-24T21:23:01Z")
90% to get appolorexus😆. I much rather a featured legend guaranteed. Crap in my view. But hey that’s just me.
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### Author:  [@Zardecil](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Zardecil)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 9:24pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/12 "2018-12-24T21:24:14Z")
That 90% chance includes mythic chances, Also the 10x chance means you’re more likely to get a featured then to not by quite a bit.
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### Author:  [@Saitama](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Saitama)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 9:28pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/13 "2018-12-24T21:28:19Z")
I’m just joking about Apollo. Good points though about the 10X chance. I don’t think I’ll spin for a very long time without featured. I strongly advise not to spin 30 eggs on this festival.
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### Author:  [@NMEGaryOak](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/NMEGaryOak)
#### Post date: [December 24, 2018, 11:39pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/14 "2018-12-24T23:39:30Z")
How do you figure those odds @Zardecil idk if that’s right
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### Author:  [@Killerdog](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Killerdog)
#### Post date: [December 25, 2018, 12:38am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/15 "2018-12-25T00:38:39Z")
I don’t know what maths Zard did but I do know it’s 50/82 for any legendary being a featured and a good chance of a legendary in any 10-pack. So there should be no real issue getting featured legendaries from this egg. It’s actually far better than the previous festivals like this because they all had 1x chance on featured.
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### Author:  [@Zardecil](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Zardecil)
#### Post date: [December 25, 2018, 12:44am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/16 "2018-12-25T00:44:27Z")
Simple application of probability.
Chance of getting at least 1 legendary/mythic = 1 - chance of not getting any mythics/legendaries.
Chance of getting mythic/legendary = 7.1% = 0.071
Chance of not getting any mythic/legendary = 1 - 0.071 = 0.929
Chance of not getting any mythic/legendary in x eggs = 0.929^x
Chance of getting at least 1 legendary/mythic in x eggs = 1 - (0.929^x)
Plugging in x = 30 yields chance of getting at least 1 legendary/mythic in x eggs = 0.89 = 89%.
Finding overall chance of limited legends + limited mythics would require finding each of those probabilities separately. Think this shows that the egg isn’t that bad after all.
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### Author:  [@eNjiin](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/eNjiin)
#### Post date: [December 25, 2018, 1:01am UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/17 "2018-12-25T01:01:11Z")
It’s all about rng. You can be very unlucky and get 10x epics only or be lucky and draw one of the mythics or featured legendaries. If there will be a festival again with guaranteed nobody can tell you that except the devs. Time will tell and this is the advice: be patient and observe in which direction those festivals are heading to
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### Author:  [@SedDeSangre](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/SedDeSangre)
#### Post date: [December 26, 2018, 1:21pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/18 "2018-12-26T13:21:14Z")
3 packs = 2 legends
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### Author:  [@VNchaohunter](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/VNchaohunter)
#### Post date: [December 26, 2018, 1:57pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/19 "2018-12-26T13:57:50Z")
Don’t hacth egg from any fes . Wait for another festival
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### Author:  [@Professor\_Oak](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/u/Professor_Oak)
#### Post date: [December 27, 2018, 1:18pm UTC](https://www.neomonstersforum.com/t/about-christmass-and-new-year-festivals/16678/20 "2018-12-27T13:18:16Z")
The fact that outcome of x eggs are not correlated has not been considered here. Hence chances remain unaffected and so the numbers and the method can be quiet misleading in such a case , isn’t it zard?
Well , I , lochi and kocowind know this for sure😆
PS: came across this post randomnly. This method of calculating probability can be safely applied to problems involving outcomes similar to that of a card deck’s case where in drawing a card affects the outcome of what the next card can be! Or dice problems… Atleast that’s what I know !
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